Post by Captain Gary on Nov 25, 2006 5:57:12 GMT -6
Certainly not trying to be a buzz kill here, but we all need to keep our eye on the SW Caribbean. This low formed on the front that recently passed through the states and is stalled/dissipating over Jamaica. The low has detatched itself from the front and isn't moving much at all right now.
The latest from the TPC:
A NEARLY STATIONARY 1008 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN CENTERED N OF PANAMA NEAR 11N79W. A BURST OF MODERATE CONVECTION FORMED EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE NRN SEMICIRCLE. THIS ACTIVITY HAS EXPANDED AND PERSISTED FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND NOW EXTENDS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE CENTER. OVERALL...THIS DISTURBANCE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
For an idea of track possibilities check out:
euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early1.png
The BAM* models are generally closest to being accurate early in the life of a cyclone, until it becomes more deeply stacked.
XTRP is just an extrapolation of current, short term motion.
The main page for these models is:
euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/
Realize of course that this early, the models will be shifting significantly every 6 hours until they become better initialized.
Edited to add a satelite loop link:
www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html
See everyone in less than a week!
The latest from the TPC:
A NEARLY STATIONARY 1008 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS IN THE SW
CARIBBEAN CENTERED N OF PANAMA NEAR 11N79W. A BURST OF MODERATE CONVECTION FORMED EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE NRN SEMICIRCLE. THIS ACTIVITY HAS EXPANDED AND PERSISTED FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AND NOW EXTENDS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE CENTER. OVERALL...THIS DISTURBANCE HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AS SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
For an idea of track possibilities check out:
euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/northatlantic/track_early1.png
The BAM* models are generally closest to being accurate early in the life of a cyclone, until it becomes more deeply stacked.
XTRP is just an extrapolation of current, short term motion.
The main page for these models is:
euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/
Realize of course that this early, the models will be shifting significantly every 6 hours until they become better initialized.
Edited to add a satelite loop link:
www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html
See everyone in less than a week!
