|
|
Post by Tex on Mar 10, 2005 8:05:02 GMT -6
Prices will fluctuate over any short term, but yesterday West Texas Intermediate (US benchmark grade crude oil) closed at $54.77 and Henry Hub natural gas closed at $6.97. This is not an all time high for oil (adjusted for inflation) or gas (not even adjusted for inflation), but is a long way from the $9.00 crude and $1.25 natural gas that we have seen over the last decade or two.
IMHO, the long term trend is up for energy prices. I believe that the markets will do what all of the talk in the world couldn't, get us to use less energy.
New buildings in the US already use far less energy than their counterparts built a few years ago, partly due to new federal standards required of all home and commercial builders. SEER ratings on HVAC equipment are going up.
In the US, our industrial processes are fairly energy efficient, our buildings are not bad either, but our motor transport and recreational motors are very wasteful. These things will not ch-ch-change overnight, but my bet is that, in a decade, our road fleet will be far more efficient and the trend towards having 225 horsepower motors on lake fishing boats will turn to something a little more modest.
|
|
|
|
Post by Ardbeg... innit on Mar 10, 2005 8:42:58 GMT -6
Just two words Tex, and I bet that you will agree...
India
China
Gordon
|
|
|
|
Post by Tex on Mar 10, 2005 8:52:17 GMT -6
And Indonesia, Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Cambodia, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan, Korea, Mexico, all of Central America, Ceylon, etc.
edited to add: It isn't just the demand side, the reserves are getting more expensive to find. Saudi is advertising for jobs for artificial lift specialists (the salt water is encroaching) This means that at least some of their fields are starting to get a little tired. No one with the ability wants to do any major prospecting in the middle east, Venezuela, Libya or Mexico (Fuck me once, shame on you....). Cash up front service and development work, yes, major exploration and wildcat wells, no.
|
|
|
|
Post by luckyhedo on Mar 10, 2005 19:09:24 GMT -6
My bet is going short on all oil stocks within the next decade and buying alternative fuel stocks. The day of oil is virtually over as we speak. ;D
LOU
|
|
|
|
Post by Tex on Mar 10, 2005 20:50:48 GMT -6
My bet is going short on all oil stocks within the next decade and buying alternative fuel stocks. The day of oil is virtually over as we speak. ;D LOU That day will come and it will come as a result of high oil prices. Whether the developers of new energy sources will be the major oil companies, silicon valley, or some obscure college professor remains to be seen. |
|
|
|
Post by That English Guy on Mar 11, 2005 9:22:38 GMT -6
...our motor transport and recreational motors are very wasteful. These things will not ch-ch-change overnight, but my bet is that, in a decade, our road fleet will be far more efficient and the trend towards having 225 horsepower motors on lake fishing boats will turn to something a little more modest. Back in 1985 an English inventor called Clive Sinclair launched a single-seater eco-friendly motor vehicle that he staked millions of £'s would revolutionise motor transport and pave the way for electric vehicles that would eventually replace the motor car as we know it. It was launched in a blaze of publicity but strangely it never caught on... Simon   |
|
|
|
Post by Merlot Joe on Mar 11, 2005 9:49:21 GMT -6
Could you imagine getting t-boned in that thing by a Mack Truck. BYE BYE  The only thing that would be left would be the splat sound when it hit you. Joe |
|
|
|
Post by Tex on Mar 11, 2005 10:35:56 GMT -6
Looks like a cross between a Big Wheel and a go kart. I wouldn't want to get T-Boned by a shopping cart with that thing. I can imagine a nice summer trip from here to El Paso (803 miles) in that.
|
|
|
|
Post by Merlot Joe on Mar 11, 2005 10:48:42 GMT -6
I wouldn't want to get T-Boned by a shopping cart with that thing. ++ LMAO, me either!!! ;D ;D ;D ;D I wouldn't drive that thing 803 feet let alone 803 miles.! Joe. |
|
|
|
Post by That English Guy on Mar 11, 2005 11:06:10 GMT -6
I did actually see one once not long after they launched it. The guy was 'driving' it in fast moving heavy London traffic. He was either very brave, or very stupid Simon |
|
|
|
Post by Chicago Jake on Mar 11, 2005 11:35:56 GMT -6
The problem with new inventions like that little electric Vespa is that society is not set up to absorb them. You can't roll them out gradually because all your customers would get killed on the roads by real vehicles. And you can't replace all the gas guzzlers at once because of momentum and the cost. Same thing with the recent "Segway" scooter:  |
|
|
|
Post by Tex on Mar 11, 2005 12:30:43 GMT -6
One good thing about the US situation is that we waste so much on overcapacity and horsepower that we could cut our energy use by 30-40% and still travel comfortably.
|
|
|
|
Post by Ardbeg... innit on Mar 11, 2005 12:45:57 GMT -6
Jake... I immediately thought of the Segway too. That little go-kart in an egg shell would work really great around here in the winter, a dusting of snow and the thing would be propped up off of its wheels until the first plow came along and deposited it in the ditch .... probably just needs a little weight in the back and a set of chains on the tires. |
|
