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Post by Ardbeg... innit on Aug 10, 2007 7:12:37 GMT -6
Stock markets across the globe are tanking in reaction to the US Sub-Prime market. US stocks tanked yesterday (Aug 9) losing almost 1/2 of its gains for the year.
Are you doing anything different, or thinking about doing something different with your investments??
Gordon
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Post by Ardbeg... innit on Aug 10, 2007 7:15:18 GMT -6
In answer to my own question, yes, we moved about 1/2 of our stock portfolio into bonds. From everything I am seeing and hearing this could be a big adjustment, and globally, other markets are scared as shit about what could happen with our sub-prime. It may even be that the big market run-ups are over with.
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Post by Chicago Jake on Aug 10, 2007 9:03:59 GMT -6
This is a perfect example of how people do exactly the wrong thing at the wrong time.
Everyone knows "buy low, sell high." But what do they do? When stocks drop, they sell! When stocks rise, they buy! Stupid, stupid, stupid!
I'm going to give it a week to stop bouncing, then buy all the stocks I can get my hands on.......Jake
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Post by Christinko on Aug 10, 2007 9:14:11 GMT -6
I'm with Jake.
I just smile and sit back and realize that if the world IS coming to an end, then my buying/selling stocks isn't going to matter beans.
If the world IS NOT coming to an end (my preferred result) then I just sit and wait till it goes back up. I'm still earning lovely dividends that I live on.
I'm vested 95% in the stock market--have been since I was a kid and only sold a stock when it was up. I rode out the early 2000s when the market was in the toilet and didn't touch anything and over the last 20 years have maintained the minimum 10%+ overall gain that I expected to get when I started investing so I'm happy and not the least disturbed.
This too shall pass.
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Post by Tex on Aug 10, 2007 10:05:26 GMT -6
I sold American Electric Power (AEP) and Grey Wolf Driiling Company (GW) in May. The AEP I sold because it had made a hell of a profit and I felt it was fully valued. I sold Grey Wolf because my engineer partner told me in May that their day rates were coming down due to new competition and would eat into 2nd qtr. earnings. They did.
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Post by Ardbeg... innit on Aug 10, 2007 10:27:27 GMT -6
Thanks guys. The views expressed above are Ann's. She is incredibly risk averse, but wants the risk exposure for the gain potential.
She is out of town for the weekend and had been listening to the news last night, lost half a night's sleep, then totally panicked this morning. Whenever the markets palpitate, she invokes the 1987 crash, and reinforces her stance with the 2000-2 Bear market ("think of how much we would have if we moved money then?".
She called at 8:00am to give me her TIAA-CREF account login and password, with instructions to "GET OUT" of the stock market and into cash. I talked her into a compromise of 1/2 of the stocks and into Bonds.
Realistically the allocation is much more 'age appropriate' considering we had no bond market exposure. This last thing I told her before I hit the submit key was "you realize that this is going to lock in yesterday's losses", she acknowledged and I did it.
Personally (ME speaking), I am a buy and hold person. My own retirement account... I have sold maybe one ETF (my favorite portfolio vehicle) in the past 5 years. If we have one significant philosophical difference, this is it! Though I regretted doing it, I couldnt take the chance of saying that I made the transfer, and then have a huge drop show up in the next statement, my ass would be grass!
Anyways, I see the market is up a bit right now
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Post by Merlot Joe on Aug 10, 2007 12:00:35 GMT -6
Doing the same thing that Jake is doing. Sitting back awhile and waiting to buy at the right moment.
If you sit and watch this market every minute of every day you will do nuts.
Joe.
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Post by innit Geezer on Aug 10, 2007 12:42:41 GMT -6
I'm out of the market since the 2001 meltdown. I rode a lot of out but the market volatility was wearing me out. One day I found myself in the doctors office because I felt completely ill. I was physically drained from having made a fortune ("forture" is relative but to me it was everything I worked for) over a long period of time and watched it unwind over the course of that year. I took the remaining funds and bought a small house to rent out and then a few months later bought a multifamily to rent out also. My attorney advised me that the tenants are going to "drive me crazy" and he suggested not to get involved, but the stability and the lack of nearly daily attention that I gave Wall Street was the draw for me. I was feeling so despondent that when I went to see the first house I bought, (it was a dark and rainy night and just finish another bad session) I stepped in the front door, maybe walked a 5 foot circle and said "I'll take it" and proceeded to walk out to my car. The little house was $175,000 and that number was mild considering the daily abuse I took on Wall Street. The deal closed a few weeks later at $156,000. I still own it (basically to have as a building lot for the future) and it's roughly doubled since then. I rent it to a couple that fill the large free standing garage with Harley's. They're happy and I'm happy. The tenants generally are fine with an occasional issue. I haven't had the same heart ache as I did with securities. As I sit here the memories of Wall Street are coming back to me. Some of the incidents are quite funny now that time has softened the edges. My writing quality (or lack of) is worse than usual today, that's bad....   |
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Post by innit Geezer on Aug 10, 2007 12:46:39 GMT -6
After all that shit I want to slowly buy some broken down quality for the future.
Modified to say: I don't know how to vote.
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Post by Chicago Jake on Aug 10, 2007 12:54:51 GMT -6
Gary, the secret to owning stocks is to NEVER look at them. Buy 'em and forget 'em. Until you are about ten years from retirement; then you have to start gradually moving them into something less volatile.
My real estate experience was nothing but hassles, until I wised up and hired a property manager. Not only does he handle all the headaches for me, but he instantly raised rents 5%, which more than makes up for the 3% he charges me!........Jake
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Post by innit Geezer on Aug 10, 2007 13:10:38 GMT -6
Jake, here's how naive I was! ... I told my attorney that the tenants can "pay me electronically" (LOL!) so "it's easier for everyone." He looked at me like I had 2 heads and said "I doubt that will be the case." It makes me laugh so hard at myself when I think of it! People inherently dislike their landlords. (which is what I found out upon closing)
I had to watch my stocks, I felt it made me responsible to the portfolio.
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Post by Just Mike on Aug 10, 2007 13:27:30 GMT -6
I'm with Jake and Stinky on this one. Although Tammi and I only buy mutual funds, we'll hang on and continue buying into our ROTH IRA and ESA(kids college accounts) as much as we can. Although the market tanked here in the last two weeks, no worries if you didn't sell anything. I didn't lose a penny(except on paper, right?) In reality, if I don't sell anything, it will just mean that the rate of return that i've earned when i finally DO sell is less, that's all.
I look at our accounts each evening, but never freak out or sell anything. I just find it interesting how different things make the market fluctuate.
Mike
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Post by innit Geezer on Aug 10, 2007 13:39:15 GMT -6
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Post by Ardbeg... innit on Aug 10, 2007 13:49:00 GMT -6
... but it's flammable. Oh shit!....maybe that's good!  We'll let Guido the Torch know, it would make his weekend |
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Post by jo on Aug 10, 2007 19:02:15 GMT -6
All you guys buying and holding and buying more when the market panics like it's doing now, hurrah, you're doing the right thing! I've been talking to clients for the past 3 weeks, trying to get them not to dump stuff at the wrong time and actually to buy. I think it may even be too early to buy, given that this subprime mess is just starting to work itself through the system and that things will get worse before they get better. We may see the DOW back to 12,000 - 12,500 before things settle down, but just think of the bargains to be had at those levels. I wouldn't be buying too much before October.
Having said that, Gord and Gary, you both did what was right for you. If being in the market makes you that uncomfortable, then you shouldn't be in it (Gord, I realize it's Ann that wasn't sleeping, so she did what was right for her). Of course, equities make more over the long term than bonds or cash, but if people can't handle the volatility, then they shouldn't be in the market. Peace of mind is more important than an extra 1 or 2 %. Gord, one caution.............I wouldn't stay in bonds. Interest rates are probably going up in the long run. The Fed may be forced to cut shortly to avoid a total market meltdown, but inflation is still the big issue out there and rates will have to go up. Food inflation is going to hit big in the next few years, and interest rates will probably go up 200 basis points over that period. Go to cash or GICs that won't fluctuate with interest rates if you want to be in guaranteed with no rate exposure.
Also, to everyone, get the hell out of financials.................they are the source of this mess and no one seems to know if and how much exposure they have to CDOs (Collatarized Debt Obligations......basically, a bunch of subprime mortgages that have been securitized and sold as bonds). The start of this debacle came from the rating agencies telling the banks and investment companies and hedge funds, if you structure the CDOs a certain way, we'll rate them AAA or AA. That's how these things got sold to so many other financial institutions (not only in the US but all over Europe, as became apparent yesterday). These companies thought they were buying highly rated bonds but junk dressed up is still junk. Now the companies who have been denying that they own any of this stuff for the past month are starting to admit that oops, they may have some, oops, they do have some, oops, they have a lot more than they thought they had. This stuff has fallen so fast, there's no way to price it and there's no buyers out there. Margin calls are coming in fast and furious and investors (mostly institutional, not too many retail investors have exposure to this stuff) have to sell what they can sell, which right now is the good stuff, the liquid stuff.........resources, energy, industrials. This is why the market is spiralling out of control but why there will be such great bargains when the dust settles. The fundamentals of all these great companies hasn't changed, they are just getting caught in the crossfire as the panic gets out of control. Buying back commodity and industrial stocks once they hit rock bottom will be a sure fire way to improve your portfolio's returns in the long term. OTOH, the financials who issued this shit in the first place and whose profits came in large part from these CDOs in the last few years, these will go down and stay down for a long time. Get out now and buy commodities........China and India aren't going anywhere and will continue to grow and need raw materials for years and decades to come. For the same reason, buy agricultural stocks.........fertilizer companies, farm equipment companies, etc. Food inflation will give these companies great pricing power in the future and although they've gone up in the last while, it's still early in the cycle.
That's my 2 cents worth (probably all it's worth!).......................JO
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Post by innit Geezer on Aug 10, 2007 22:28:09 GMT -6
I like everything you said. Bravo!
At one point the financial stocks will have to be bought but it will be tricky paying the right price and of course you'll need the patience and perseverance to see them through to the next bull market in real estate. (or at least stabilization)
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Post by Ardbeg... innit on Aug 11, 2007 5:09:48 GMT -6
THANKS Jo!
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Post by DT on Aug 12, 2007 22:18:03 GMT -6
Stock markets across the globe are tanking in reaction to the US Sub-Prime market. US stocks tanked yesterday (Aug 9) losing almost 1/2 of its gains for the year. Are you doing anything different, or thinking about doing something different with your investments?? Gordon In 1999 greed got the best of me and I put all my eggs in one basket. Well, those eggs cracked. Since then I diversified (25% bonds, 25% low risk, and 50% high risk) I will keep it right there till age 59 ½. BINGO!!!! Six years ago I took a very nice Las Vegas Roulette win (13 black landing 5 times in a row) and parlayed it into two integrated steel mill stocks, all based on a theory I had on the five big integrated mills that were around at that time. Thanks to a campaign promise that Bush fulfilled, Lakshmi Mittal and China’s ungodly appetite for steel and coke. Those parlays hit pay dirt! Call it beginners luck, because it’s the only stock that I ever brought where I sought out and used a stock broker. |
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Post by Ozmale on Aug 19, 2007 22:52:34 GMT -6
Sat tight and things are looking pretty good. Might have even picked up a bargain or two.....
Ozmale
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Post by Chicago Jake on Oct 1, 2007 18:56:05 GMT -6
Well, that didn't take long. Aren't you all glad you didn't bail out?.......Jake ************************************************** Dow Jones passes 14,000 for record high
By JOE BEL BRUNO, AP Business WriterNEW YORK - Wall Street began the fourth quarter with a huge rally Monday, sending the Dow Jones industrial average to a record close. Stocks were buoyed by a growing belief that the worst of the credit crisis has passed. The Dow rose 191.92, or 1.38 percent, to 14,087.55, surpassing its closing record of 14,000.41 set in mid-July. The blue chip index rose as high as 14,115.51 to eclipse its previous intraday high of 14,021.95 set July 17. more |
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Post by Merlot Joe on Oct 1, 2007 19:29:16 GMT -6
What goes up must come down.
Joe.
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Post by Exildo Wonsetler Briggs III on Oct 1, 2007 20:02:25 GMT -6
Well, that didn't take long. Aren't you all glad you didn't bail out?.......Jake No doubt, it's a communist plot!!! The World is coming to an end and no doubt, it's BUSH'S fault!! ;D ;D |
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Post by Merlot Joe on Oct 1, 2007 20:23:02 GMT -6
Well, that didn't take long. Aren't you all glad you didn't bail out?.......Jake No doubt, it's a communist plot!!! The World is coming to an end and no doubt, it's BUSH'S fault!! ;D ;D Don't worry, the Demos will take all the credit and Bush will get the blame that he has done nothing at all. Joe. |
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Post by Ozmale on Oct 6, 2007 6:55:00 GMT -6
Well, that didn't take long. Aren't you all glad you didn't bail out?.......Jake No doubt, it's a communist plot!!! The World is coming to an end and no doubt, it's BUSH'S fault!! ;D ;D Jake, I am sorry but I must disagree with you. We are in the lead up to a federal election here (the date will be revealed any day/week now) and it has been made quite clear that everything from the Tampa & Children Overboard to Global Warming and Climate ch-ch-change, and of course Iraq is solely and totally the fault of John Winston Howard (our PM)...... Ozmale |
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Post by DT on Feb 23, 2014 5:55:21 GMT -6
Will this message board and JC Penney (JCP) pick up?
psssst..... Hot stock tip... Lee Enterprises, Inc. (LEE)
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Post by Chicago Jake on Feb 23, 2014 17:58:08 GMT -6
Stocks did great in 2013. So great I was tempted to pull out. But that didn't sound very manly, so I let it all ride.
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Post by DT on Feb 27, 2014 18:42:30 GMT -6
WOW, JCPenney bounced back with one of its biggest gains in a long time. WTG JCP!!!
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