The Polls

[New Mama]

…are driving me nuts.

I have read at least 2 dozen articles about the polling on this election. Charges of skewed polls; polling more Democrats to favor Obama are now common. Even some liberal commentators have claimed this. It would appear that we shouldn't even pay attention to the polls. Except that many do. It often affects how many registered voters actually do vote. If the news is full of 'Obama is leading in early voting' or ‘polls for Obama by 10 points’ it can hurt both parties. The lazy Democrats think they don't need to vote and the Republicans think it's a waste of their time.

I'm convinced that a majority...not all… major networks are spinning the news for Obama and reporting Romney's campaign in serious trouble, comparing him to Dukais, that he’s running out of time, Romney is loosing, Romney must win debates, some have gone so far as calling his campaign DOA. I predict this will ch-ch-change in the last few days before Nov. 6th. I think they will ch-ch-change their spin to claim that the race is in a dead heat to energize the left to get off their ass and vote.

Is their a poll to be trusted?

[♥ COVID-19♥]

Sept 28, 2012 13:26:10 GMT -6 New Mama said:

I have read at least 2 dozen articles about the polling on this erection.

The Mother Of All Freudian Slips

[New Mama]

That Jakie is such a trickster!

[♥ COVID-19♥]

Yeah, yeah, always throw the Board Admin under the bus when you make a typo. Puh-leez.

[Merlot Joe]

The polls are to small of a sample of voters in my opinion to believe anything they come up with. Who did they poll? Where did they poll?. All this stuff makes a difference.

[Chicago Jake]

All I know is, every race tightens up as it gets closer to the Big Day.

[♥ COVID-19♥]

[Merlot Joe]

Sept 28, 2012 15:20:22 GMT -6 Chicago Jake said:

All I know is, every race tightens up as it gets closer to the Big Day.

So does a bulls ass at fly time.

[Ardbeg... innit]

Sept 28, 2012 13:26:10 GMT -6 New Mama said:

…are driving me nuts.

I have read at least 2 dozen articles about the polling on this erection. Charges of skewed polls; polling more Democrats to favor Obama are now common. Even some liberal commentators have claimed this. It would appear that we shouldn't even pay attention to the polls. Except that many do. It often affects how many registered voters actually do vote. If the news is full of 'Obama is leading in early voting' or ‘polls for Obama by 10 points’ it can hurt both parties. The lazy Democrats think they don't need to vote and the Republicans think it's a waste of their time.

I'm convinced that a majority...not all… major networks are spinning the news for Obama and reporting Romney's campaign in serious trouble, comparing him to Dukais, that he’s running out of time, Romney is loosing, Romney must win debates, some have gone so far as calling his campaign DOA. I predict this will ch-ch-change in the last few days before Nov. 6th. I think they will ch-ch-change their spin to claim that the race is in a dead heat to energize the left to get off their ass and vote.

Is their a poll to be trusted?

First it was the liberal media that is so against the Republicans. Now it is the liberal pollsters that are against the Republicans.

Maybe its the Republicans nominees that are hurting the Republicans.

If I was a Republican, in favor Romney, Id be screeming bloody murder about the way his campaign is being run. Its almost as if he only wanted to be nominated, and doesnt really care if he wins.

Case in point Pennsylvania... Yesterday Romney said that it was a "battleground" state that he needed to win, yet it was his first visit there in two months, and neither his campaign nor any conservative superPAC has advertised there since August. Polls indicate that Obama is up by 20 points there... battleground? really?

Your angst is understandable, but misplaced. If you are going to get mad, get mad at the campaign.

Pollsters are , for the most part, in it for the money from selling their results. If they give out bad results people wont buy their results in the future... sounds like "free enterprise to me". If they consistently produce bad results, they are out of business.

[Ardbeg... innit]

Sept 28, 2012 15:20:22 GMT -6 Chicago Jake said:

All I know is, every race tightens up as it gets closer to the Big Day.

Not really... Reagan was pulling away from Carter in 80, and was pulling away from Mondale in 84, Bush Sr was pulling away from Dukakis, W from Kerry and Obama from McCain, at election day. Its about 50-50.

[♥ COVID-19♥]

Re: liberal bias, anyone know who is leading in the Fox news poll? Just sayin' ...

Sent from my DROID Pro using proboards

[Tex]

According to a New York Times story dated 8/22/12, contributions by News Corp. total $58,825 for Obama and $2,750 for Romney. In 2008, their contributions were overwhelmingly for Hillary Clinton. I know the left loves to paint Fox News as a right wing mouthpiece, but these are inconvenient facts.

[Ardbeg... innit]

The only inconvenient fact there Tex, is that why would ANYONE trust News Corp?? There is no question that they have a conservative slant, but if they are throwing $$ at Obama its for one reason only, to assure a good seat in the Press Room at the White House for the next four years.

[New Mama]

Sept 29, 2012 12:15:20 GMT -6 ♥ COVID-19♥ said:

Re: liberal bias, anyone know who is leading in the Fox news poll? Just sayin' ...

Sent from my DROID Pro using proboards

I was interested in this and found some interesting information.

www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-vs-barack-obama-fox-news-presidential-poll-skewed

The Fox News poll released today continues the trend of skewed polls that over-sample Democratic voters to produce results favorable for the president. The poll reports President Obama leading over Mitt Romney by a margin of 48 percent to 43 percent. But this is based on a sample that includes eight percent more Democrats than it does Republicans for an electorate that is made up of two percent more Republicans than Democrats. This eight percent over-sampling of Democrats gives Obama a four percent lead in survey data that should show by a smaller two percent margin instead.
The Fox News poll includes 1092 likely voters, of which 37 percent are Democrats, 33 percent are Republicans and 30 percent are independent or unenrolled voters. This sample is an improvement over that used in the September 12 Fox News Poll which featured a sample including 42 percent are Democrats, 36 percent are Republicans and 18 percent are independent or unenrolled voters. The model used for the partisan makeup of the electorate is that used for the QStarNews Poll which is 34.8 percent Republicans, 35.2 percent Democrats, and 30.0 percent independents. The difference means the Fox News poll over-sampled Democratic voters by four percent.

When the data from the Fox News poll is unskewed by weighting their reported percentages between Romney and Obama to the partisan affiliations showed by Rasmussen's extensive data results on that issue, the overall picture of the race is different. With Republicans weighted 34.8 percent, Democrats at 35.2 percent and Independents at 30.0 percent, the results calculate to Obama leading but by a smaller 46 percent to 44 percent margin over Romney. A large majority of the undecided voters, who usually break for the challenger in a presidential race involving the incumbent president, can be expected to swing toward Romney and lead to a likely Romney majority on election day according to this polling data. If 70 percent of those undecided voters break for Romney by election, the voting patterns indicated by this poll would be consistent with a 51 percent to 49 percent slim majority for Mitt Romney.

This survey is not the only such poll recently to be skewed by over-sampling Democrats to skew the results in favor of Barack Obama. Earlier this month, the latest CNN/ORC poll was similarly skewed. Last month on the Fox News segment “Campaign Insiders” today, Democratic pollsters Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen both confirmed their belief that major polls are skewed in favor of the Democrats by over-sampling of Democratic voters when the surveys are conducted.

So many of these skewed polls have been unskewed here in this column they are now averaged, in unskewed form, in the new UnskewedPolls.com UnSkewed Average of Polls that today shows Romney leading by 7.4 percent.

If true, it would appear that the race is very close....according to polls.

[New Mama]

Sept 29, 2012 6:14:26 GMT -6 Ardbeg... innit said:

Case in point Pennsylvania... Yesterday Romney said that it was a "battleground" state that he needed to win, yet it was his first visit there in two months, and neither his campaign nor any conservative superPAC has advertised there since August. Polls indicate that Obama is up by 20 points there... battleground? really?

Your angst is understandable, but misplaced. If you are going to get mad, get mad at the campaign.

I'm surprised he is spending any time in PA. A Republican has not won the State since 1988. OTOH, he is reportedly down by 7 in PA after his trip last Friday.

Without knowing how the polls are conducted, I suspect even that number. Is he wise to spend time there? I just don't know.

Romney trails by seven percentage points in the state, according to a Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll released on Friday. This is a slight gain for the Republican candidate, who trailed by 10 points last month.

news.yahoo.com/romney-campaign-hits-trail-pennsylvania-advance-ads-160700445.html

[Ardbeg... innit]

Oct 1, 2012 12:16:50 GMT -6 New Mama said:

Sept 29, 2012 12:15:20 GMT -6 ♥ COVID-19♥ said:

Re: liberal bias, anyone know who is leading in the Fox news poll? Just sayin' ...

Sent from my DROID Pro using proboards

I was interested in this and found some interesting information.

www.examiner.com/article/mitt-romney-vs-barack-obama-fox-news-presidential-poll-skewed

The Fox News poll released today continues the trend of skewed polls that over-sample Democratic voters to produce results favorable for the president. The poll reports President Obama leading over Mitt Romney by a margin of 48 percent to 43 percent. But this is based on a sample that includes eight percent more Democrats than it does Republicans for an electorate that is made up of two percent more Republicans than Democrats. This eight percent over-sampling of Democrats gives Obama a four percent lead in survey data that should show by a smaller two percent margin instead.
The Fox News poll includes 1092 likely voters, of which 37 percent are Democrats, 33 percent are Republicans and 30 percent are independent or unenrolled voters. This sample is an improvement over that used in the September 12 Fox News Poll which featured a sample including 42 percent are Democrats, 36 percent are Republicans and 18 percent are independent or unenrolled voters. The model used for the partisan makeup of the electorate is that used for the QStarNews Poll which is 34.8 percent Republicans, 35.2 percent Democrats, and 30.0 percent independents. The difference means the Fox News poll over-sampled Democratic voters by four percent.

When the data from the Fox News poll is unskewed by weighting their reported percentages between Romney and Obama to the partisan affiliations showed by Rasmussen's extensive data results on that issue, the overall picture of the race is different. With Republicans weighted 34.8 percent, Democrats at 35.2 percent and Independents at 30.0 percent, the results calculate to Obama leading but by a smaller 46 percent to 44 percent margin over Romney. A large majority of the undecided voters, who usually break for the challenger in a presidential race involving the incumbent president, can be expected to swing toward Romney and lead to a likely Romney majority on erection day according to this polling data. If 70 percent of those undecided voters break for Romney by election, the voting patterns indicated by this poll would be consistent with a 51 percent to 49 percent slim majority for Mitt Romney.

This survey is not the only such poll recently to be skewed by over-sampling Democrats to skew the results in favor of Barack Obama. Earlier this month, the latest CNN/ORC poll was similarly skewed. Last month on the Fox News segment “Campaign Insiders” today, Democratic pollsters Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen both confirmed their belief that major polls are skewed in favor of the Democrats by over-sampling of Democratic voters when the surveys are conducted.

So many of these skewed polls have been unskewed here in this column they are now averaged, in unskewed form, in the new UnskewedPolls.com UnSkewed Average of Polls that today shows Romney leading by 7.4 percent.

If true, it would appear that the race is very close....according to polls.

I have no idea WHO is doing this reporting, but they have no clue what random sampling is.

You do NOT design a Presidential poll to sample equal numbers of any particular party. The basic assumption is that you sample RANDOMLY from the population.

Suppose that population (lets say 100,000,000 people) is 45% for party "X", 40% for party "Y" and 15% for neither party. If you do a random sampling of say 1,000 people out of that and end up with 450 people from party "X", 400 people from party "Y" and 150 people from neither party, you have sampled accurately from the population. THE ABSOLUTE GOAL OF POLLING.

I have no clue what this "deskewing" is about. I took 6 statistics classes in college, 5 of them graduate level, and NEVER heard of this "deskewing".

If you deliberately went into the population and tried to find 500 from party "X" and 500 from party "Y" you would most likely end up with results that are more favorable to party "Y", but it is a biased sample.

If one pollster was doing this "deskewing", their results would stand out as very different from the rest. Obviously the results that you site in your post.

The flip side of this is that ALL OTHER POLLSTERS would have to be colluding in order to obtain similar results from what the writer seems to believe is biased polling.

I invoke Occam's Razor here. Is it more logical that a multitude of independent pollsters are working together to produce biased polling results against Romney, or that Romney is in fact behind.

[Ardbeg... innit]

I now hear on the radio that this was a Limbaugh idea... that explains everything.

A mouth trying to stay relevant will utter the most incredible things.

I dont understand WHY pollsters, even if they were liberally biased would want to make people feel the "game is over". Its counter intuitive. If Dems think that Obama is ahead it will work to suppress the dem voters sense that they need to go out to vote, AND will rally the Republicans to get out there. If anything this "deskewing" will probably make it more likely that the Dems will get out to vote for Obama.

BTW- I am hearing in this another echo from the 2004 election, except that in 2004 the conservatives were lauding these very same pollsters and liberals were crying conservative bias. The more things ch-ch-change, the more they stay the same.

Edited: We can revisit this thread after November 6 if you like.

[New Mama]

Oct 2, 2012 6:01:58 GMT -6 Ardbeg... innit said:

I now hear on the radio that this was a Limbaugh idea... that explains everything.

A mouth trying to stay relevant will utter the most incredible things.

I dont understand WHY pollsters, even if they were liberally biased would want to make people feel the "game is over". Its counter intuitive. If Dems think that Obama is ahead it will work to suppress the dem voters sense that they need to go out to vote, AND will rally the Republicans to get out there. If anything this "deskewing" will probably make it more likely that the Dems will get out to vote for Obama.

BTW- I am hearing in this another echo from the 2004 election, except that in 2004 the conservatives were lauding these very same pollsters and liberals were crying conservative bias. The more things ch-ch-change, the more they stay the same.

Edited: We can revisit this thread after November 6 if you like.

I agree with you. As I said upfront, I just don't get this polls and don't know what to believe. No need to revisit this after the election. I'll be crying in my wine then.

[♥ COVID-19♥]

Look at the bright side: you'll still have a target-rich environment.

[Tex]

I don't know enough about the polls to express an educated opinion on them. Pat Cadell (Carter's pollster) and Doug Schoen (Clinton's pollster) have both expressed the opinion that the polls are biased. In the pollsters defense, the turnout by various demographics has jumped around considerably the last couple of elections and they are having to guess who will turn out in the next - not such an easy task. I suspect that the polls more accurately show movement than absolute position.

[Tex]

It will come down to the swinger states.

[♥ COVID-19♥]

Which makes it a shame that there's now a shortage of Wet Platinum in Florida thanks to DrBob's Weiner.

[Exildo Wonsetler Briggs III]

Oct 28, 2012 16:25:18 GMT -6 ♥ COVID-19♥ said:

Which makes it a shame that there's now a shortage of Wet Platinum in Florida thanks to DrBob's Weiner.

Which is not so much a problem now since Romney pretty much has Obama's ass in Florida, so not much lube needed.

[♥ COVID-19♥]

Unless of course you decide to celebrate with the Log Cabin Republicans, in which case you may need to resort to Crisco.

[Chicago Jake]

Sept 29, 2012 6:18:19 GMT -6 Ardbeg... innit said:

Sept 28, 2012 15:20:22 GMT -6 Chicago Jake said:

All I know is, every race tightens up as it gets closer to the Big Day.

Not really... Reagan was pulling away from Carter in 80, and was pulling away from Mondale in 84, Bush Sr was pulling away from Dukakis, W from Kerry and Obama from McCain, at erection day. Its about 50-50.

I think I have been vindicated in this particular cycle.

[Ardbeg... innit]

Wait for election day Jake, no one likes a player that spikes the ball on the 5 yard line.

[Ardbeg... innit]

Oct 28, 2012 19:21:47 GMT -6 Chicago Jake said:

Sept 29, 2012 6:18:19 GMT -6 Ardbeg... innit said:

Not really... Reagan was pulling away from Carter in 80, and was pulling away from Mondale in 84, Bush Sr was pulling away from Dukakis, W from Kerry and Obama from McCain, at erection day. Its about 50-50.

I think I have been vindicated in this particular cycle.

... and yes I agree that sometimes, about 50% of the time, a race tightens as the election approaches. If you feel "vindicated" enjoy the feeling... the electoral vote count hasnt changed much to date.

[Chicago Jake]

Oct 30, 2012 5:10:59 GMT -6 Ardbeg... innit said:

Wait for erection day Jake, no one likes a player that spikes the ball on the 5 yard line.

I didn't say that Romney would win. I said the polls would tighten when we got closer to the big day, and they did.

[Ardbeg... innit]

... and they may separate again in the coming week.. not saying they will, but they game is not over.

[Tex]

I am not convinced the polls are anywhere near accurate. The tremendous variations in the demographic of the turnout, the switch to cell phones, and greater interstate migration all team up to confound the pollsters. The results vary greatly from poll to the next and there is no guarantee that any of them are close to the mark. We live in interesting times.